Ambient Fungal Spores as Short-Term Predictors of Respiratory Virus Incidence and Mortality in Puerto Rico: Evidence from Machine Learning and Time-Series Modeling

Félix E. Rivera-Mariani, Lynn University
Armando J. Borrero-Aponte, University of Puerto Rico - Rio Piedras Campus
Benjamín Bolaños-Rosero, University of Puerto Rico - Medical Sciences Campus

Theme: Global Environmental Health Equity across the Lifespan

Abstract

This poster presentation, which was a Late-Breaking Abstract, demonstrates that outdoor fungal spore concentrations, unlike pollen, serve as effective short-term environmental predictors for surges in both incidence and mortality of influenza and COVID-19 in Puerto Rico’s San Juan-Metro and Caguas regions, particularly during the fall season. Machine learning and time-series analyses indicate that integrating fungal spore data can enhance respiratory virus surveillance and help guide timely public health interventions.